Bit of a Tangent

019 | Mental Models 2: How To Think Like A Bayesian, Avoid Black Swans, & Know The Value of Your Decisions

October 28, 2019

This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we’re bringing you the most useful and applicable models we’ve encountered in everything we’ve read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed distributions, counterfactual reasoning, inversion, and red-teaming. Throughout, we build up each model with examples and motivations, and often found ourselves making previously unseen (by us) links to other models which gave us several new insights. We hope this conversation will do the same for you!

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Shownotes:

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Farnam Street Blog - https://fs.blog 

Calibration training app by 80 000 Hours - https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/ 

Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting 

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities 

Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets 

The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan 

CGP Grey on 7 Ways To Maximise Misery - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO1mTELoj6o 

Claude Shannon on Creative Thinking - https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creative-thinking-by-claude-shannon 

The Bottom Line - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line 

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