Bit of a Tangent

Bit of a Tangent is back! In this episode, Jared shares the 19 ideas he couldn’t stop thinking about in 2019, whilst Gianluca does two B-grade Joe Rogan impressions. Together, they discuss everything from mechanism design to personal fitness hacks, and throw in some recommendations for supercharging your learning in the new year. Strap yourselves in for a taste of the fascinating conversations that lie ahead in 2020!

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Shownotes:

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Jared (twitter.com/jnearestn) and Gianluca (twitter.com/QVagabond) on Twitter

Jared’s Twitter thread (19 ideas I couldn't stop thinking about in 2019): https://twitter.com/jnearestn/status/1211681767742156803

Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Sequences: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences

Meditations on Moloch: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

Radical Markets: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36515770-radical-markets

007 | Game Theory, Alignment, and Civilisational Inadequacy: https://www.podtangent.com/e/007-game-theory-alignment-and-civilisational-inadequacy/

Glen Weyl on Twitter: https://twitter.com/glenweyl

Mechanism design: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanism_design

Tyler Cowen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tylercowen

Surfing Uncertainty by Andy Clark: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25823558-surfing-uncertainty

Fast.AI courses: https://www.fast.ai/

When someone tries to “Euler” you: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/12/does-race-exist-does-culture/

Body by Science, by Little and McGuff: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/4642174-body-by-science

FitNotes app for Android: https://www.fitnotesapp.com/

All Debates are Bravery Debates on SlateStarCodex: https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/06/09/all-debates-are-bravery-debates/

Tim Ferriss on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tferriss

Naval Ravikant on Twitter: https://twitter.com/naval

011 | Slack, attention and focus: https://www.podtangent.com/e/slack-attention-and-focus-or-why-more-is-less/

010 | Flow states, optimal performance, and PhD hunter-gathering: https://www.podtangent.com/e/010-flow-states-optimal-performance-and-phd-hunter-gathering

Michael Nielsen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen

Anki for spaced repetition: https://apps.ankiweb.net/

013 | How To Learn Anything: https://www.podtangent.com/e/013-how-to-learn-anything/

The 7 +-2 principle for memory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Magical_Number_Seven,_Plus_or_Minus_Two

Chunking: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunking_(psychology)

The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler, Robin Hanson: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28820444-the-elephant-in-the-brain

Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36606376-inadequate-equilibria

Robin Hanson on Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson

Awareness by Anthony de Mello: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/94318.Awareness

The Cook and the Chef on WaitButWhy: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html

Sam Harris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg

Sam’s Waking Up app: https://wakingup.com/

This is part 3 of the series on Mental Models, in which Gianluca and Jared discuss the cognitive biases that often impede aspiring rationalists. They discuss the idea of “System 1 and 2” thinking as a framing for the entire discussion, before exploring 12 of the most deadly thinking traps and how to avoid them. This includes everything from the Planning Fallacy and Anchoring, to more esoteric pitfalls that are yet to be named. Finally, they describe meta-biases—like the Bias Blindspot and the Fallacy Fallacy—equipping your mental toolkit with everything you need to upgrade your thinking. 

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Shownotes:

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System 1 and 2 thinking in Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow”: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow

An awesome resource, the Cognitive Bias Codex: https://ritholtz.com/2016/09/cognitive-bias-codex/

A superb introduction to biases by Rob Bensinger: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptxnyfLWqRZ98wnYi/biases-an-introduction

Yudkowsky on scope insensitivity: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ftJ38y9SRBCBsCzy/scope-insensitivity

[Study] Scope insensitivity: The limits of intuitive valuation of human lives in public policy: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211368114000795

Bayes’ Theorem in medical testing: https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-bayes-theorem

Bayes’ Theorem examples visualised: https://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/

Hamburg’s philharmonic concert hall that ran 6 years and 1000% over budget: https://www.thelocal.de/20161101/700m-over-budget-hamburg-concert-hall-finally-finished-elbphilharmonie

Fascinating studies on the planning fallacy in students’ academic predictions: https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366,_1994.pdf

Reference class forecasting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting

How to overcome the planning fallacy with “fudge ratios”: https://wpsmith.net/2015/improving-your-time-estimates-the-fudge-ratio/

Spinning the wheel on the anchoring bias: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/07/27/anchoring-effect/

“Influence” by Robert Cialdini: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28815.Influence

016 | Free Will, Compassion, and Reinforcement Learning: https://www.podtangent.com/e/016-free-will-compassion-and-reinforcement-learning/

Inferential distances: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances

Findings in Hedonic adaptation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill#Empirical_findings

Dan Harris’ “10% Happier” podcast: https://www.tenpercent.com/podcast

The Peak-End Rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak%E2%80%93end_rule

This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we’re bringing you the most useful and applicable models we’ve encountered in everything we’ve read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed distributions, counterfactual reasoning, inversion, and red-teaming. Throughout, we build up each model with examples and motivations, and often found ourselves making previously unseen (by us) links to other models which gave us several new insights. We hope this conversation will do the same for you!

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Shownotes:

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Farnam Street Blog - https://fs.blog 

Calibration training app by 80 000 Hours - https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/ 

Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting 

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities 

Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets 

The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan 

CGP Grey on 7 Ways To Maximise Misery - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO1mTELoj6o 

Claude Shannon on Creative Thinking - https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creative-thinking-by-claude-shannon 

The Bottom Line - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line 

This is part 1 of a new series on Mental Models - tips, tricks, and tools to add to your mental toolbox. In this episode we introduce the concept of a mental model but then quickly dive in to explanations of the most powerful models we’ve encountered. Join us and learn how to make better decisions (or know when a decision is not worth making), how to have more original and impactful ideas (and how to find the most promising ideas to work on out of the thousands you’ll soon have), and when tidying up your messy desk is just plain wrong (sorry, Marie Kondo!)

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Shownotes:

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The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/44245196-the-great-mental-models 

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41181911-super-thinking 

Feynman technique - https://fs.blog/2012/04/feynman-technique/ 

More Dakka by The Zvi - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8usYeKX7dtTWsEnk/more-dakka 

Least recently used idea: read the book Algorithms To Live By by Brian Christian - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by 

Eisenhower matrix - https://jamesclear.com/eisenhower-box 

Josh Wolfe on Shane Parrish’s podcast - https://fs.blog/josh-wolfe/ 

Eliezer Yudkowsky’s marvelous introduction to Bayes Theorem. Seriously, read this: http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes 

Tim Urban’s WaitButWhy post on thinking from first principles like Elon Musk: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/11/the-cook-and-the-chef-musks-secret-sauce.html 

Deep Work by Cal Newport - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25744928-deep-work 

So Good They Can’t Ignore You by Cal Newport - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13525945-so-good-they-can-t-ignore-you 

Keep Your Identity Small by Paul Graham - http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html 

Joscha Bach on the Singularity podcast: https://www.singularityweblog.com/joscha-bach/

This episode features the much-anticipated conversation with Bronwyn Williams on the topic of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Bronwyn is a futurist and trend analyst with a background in marketing and economics. Gianluca and Jared pick her brain about the economic viability of UBI, the influence of politics and big tech, and the trends in automation that will shape the future of humanity. Regardless of your fiscal intuitions or political leanings, this episode will equip you with the core arguments in the UBI debate and leave you with plenty of food for thought.

 

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Shownotes:

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Write to Bit of a Tangent at podtangent@gmail.com

Tweet at Bit of a Tangent: https://twitter.com/podtangent

Follow Bit of a Tangent (incl. behind the scenes) on Instagram: www.instagram.com/podtangent

Bronwyn Williams on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bronwynwilliams

Bronwyn’s website: https://whatthefuturenow.com

Flux Trends: https://www.fluxtrends.com/

Apollo 42: http://apollo42.com/

Negative income tax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax

Alaskan oil dividend: nhttps://basicincometoday.com/the-complicated-politics-of-the-alaska-permanent-fund-dividend/5422

Andrew Yang and the proposed “Freedom Dividend”: https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/

Andrew Yang’s discussions about UBI with Sam Harris: https://samharris.org/podcasts/130-universal-basic-income/

Social credit system in China: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained

Elon Musk on automation and UBI: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/elon-musk-automated-jobs-could-make-ubi-cash-handouts-necessary.html

Neuralink’s human-brain interface: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA77zsJ31nA

Humanity’s increasing prosperity (Steven Pinker): https://youtu.be/o5X2-i_poNU

On having a “Venezuela moment”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela

Single-payer healthcare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-payer_healthcare

Cost of bringing a drug to market: https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2017/10/16/the-cost-of-developing-drugs-is-insane-a-paper-that-argued-otherwise-was-insanely-bad/#2c8eb48d2d45

Swiss referendum on UBI: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36454060

Bronwyn’s book reviews: https://whatthefuturenow.com/category/reading-right-now/

The Origins of Totalitarianism by Hannah Arendt: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/396931.The_Origins_of_Totalitarianism

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26195941-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism

Death of the Gods by Carl Miller: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40504262-the-death-of-the-gods?ac=1&from_search=true

Ben Hunt on Twitter: https://twitter.com/epsilontheory

David Pearce on Twitter: https://twitter.com/webmasterdave

Slate Star Codex breakdown of UBI: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/01/squareallworthy-on-ubi-plans/

Bayesian Conspiracy (with David Spearman) on the economics of UBI vs. NIT: http://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2019/07/88-ubi-and-other-forms-of-evil-taxes/